Home Price Growth Projections Through Summer 2024
The housing market trends has seen its fair share of ups and downs over the past few years. Rising interest rates in 2022-2023 slowed demand and price growth after the frenzy of the pandemic boom years. But the market always moves in cycles, and many are wondering where home prices may head next.
SmartAsset analyzed data to determine which zip codes have the highest projected home price growth through summer 2024. The analysis found that neighborhoods in warm locales like Miami, Knoxville and Myrtle Beach dominate the top spots. However, some neighborhoods in pricier coastal cities like New York and San Francisco are also poised for solid growth.
Keep reading for a breakdown of the data, tips for navigating the housing market trends or homeownership and a detailed look at the top 10 zip codes with the highest projected home price increases.
Key Findings
- Miami and Knoxville zip codes claim 4 out of the top 10 spots for highest projected price growth through summer 2024.
- About 80% of the top 50 zip codes for projected growth over the next year are located in the South.
- Zip codes in NYC like Washington Heights, Jamaica and Fort George are poised for home price growth of 7% or more.
- Carmel Valley in San Diego may see the largest dollar increase at around $100,000 more per home by summer 2024.
Where Are Home Values Heading?
Projecting future home values is more art than science. Housing markets trends are complex and influenced by many variables including mortgage rates, employment, demographics and migration patterns. Past results offer clues, not guarantees. The future remains uncertain.
However, examining projected growth rates from leading housing market trends data providers can provide a reasonable estimate of where home values may trend over the next year. It helps buyers and sellers make informed decisions about the right timing to enter or exit the market.
The analyzed home value projections for over 2,000 zip codes from Zillow. The projections estimate the percent change in typical home values from July 2023 to July 2024.
The data reveals neighborhoods where demand is likely to remain hot over the next year. Most of these areas boast relatively affordable home prices along with vibrant local economies.
Housing Market Trends - Miami and Knoxville Lead the Way
Four zip codes in Miami and Knoxville claim spots among the top 10 highest projected home price increases over the next year.
In the Knoxville area, the 37920 and 37918 zip codes are expected to see home values rise around 9.5% and 8.3% respectively by summer 2024. Both neighborhoods offer easy access to downtown Knoxville’s job market and amenities. But they maintain a quiet suburban feel that appeals to families.
The Miami neighborhoods of 33161 in North Miami and 33162 in North Miami Beach also make the top 10. Home values in these areas could surge by around 8.5% to 8.8% over the next year.
The Miami housing market trends saw prices skyrocket during the pandemic. And while growth is slowing from the breakneck pace of 2020 and 2021, demand remains strong in relatively affordable neighborhoods like North Miami.
Housing Market Trends - Southern and Midwestern Hot Spots
About 80% of the top 50 zip codes with the highest projected home price growth over the next year are located in the South.
Beyond Knoxville and Miami, several metro areas throughout the Southeast and Midwest stand out.
Other top Southern zip codes include:
- Winston-Salem, NC (27105 and 27107): 8.7% and 7.3% projected growth
- Athens, GA (30605 and 30606): 7.9% and 7.7%
- Myrtle Beach, SC (29588): 7.8%
- Savannah, GA (31419): 7.8%
- Charlotte, NC (28208): 7.5%
Areas with top projected growth in the Midwest include:
- Muskegon, MI (49442): 8.6%
- Lenoir, NC (28645): 8.4%
Most of these zip codes represent relatively small cities with plenty of room for new construction. They offer an affordable cost of living compared to larger metros. And their local economies are thriving. These dynamics signal strong housing demand ahead.
Housing Market Trends - Big City Standouts
While less expensive Southern and Midwestern cities dominate the list, some specific zip codes in major coastal metros are also poised for solid home price growth.
In New York, neighborhoods like Fort George (10040), Jamaica (11434) and Washington Heights (10032) could see prices rise 7% or more by next summer. Home buyers priced out of central Manhattan and Brooklyn are turning to these more affordable alternatives.
In metro Phoenix, the 85009 zip code may grow 6.9% by summer 2024. This area offers easy access to downtown jobs, dining and entertainment. Chicago’s 60623 neighborhood is projected for 4.9% growth as the city’s housing market trends stays hot.
But not all major metros show strong growth ahead. In notoriously expensive San Francisco, no zip code cracks the top 100 list. The highest projected increase is just 1.7% in the 94121 neighborhood.
Housing Market Trends - Biggest Dollar Increases
While places like Rio Grande City, TX (78582) top the list for percent growth at 12.3%, dollar values in this smaller city remain relatively low.
Looking at metro areas with high home prices reveals which zip codes may see the largest dollar gains. For example:
- Carmel Valley, San Diego (92130): A projected 5.3% increase on the $1.85 million average value equates to almost $100,000 more per home.
- Rancho Palos Verdes, Los Angeles (90275): A 4.6% increase on the $2 million average price means a gain of $92,403.
- Encinitas, San Diego (92024): Average values around $1.5 million rising 5.4% results in an increase of $80,541.
For luxury home sellers, these areas provide the opportunity for big gains if projections hold.
Key Tips for Buyers and Sellers
These home value projections provide insight into where prices may move over the next year. But no one has a crystal ball, so buyers and sellers should weigh forecasts as one data point among many. Here are a few other tips:
- Consider renting if buying. Run a thought process to help you run the numbers to see if renting may be a better option depending on how long you plan to stay.
- Shop mortgage rates. Getting pre-approved and locking in a low rate while you search can give you an edge. Use data on the internet and compare rates across lenders.
- Talk to a financial advisor if buying. An advisor can help assess if homeownership aligns with your overall financial goals and budget.
While the future remains uncertain, examining market indicators can help savvy buyers and sellers make smart moves. Those looking to enter or exit housing markets trends with strong projected growth may want to start positioning themselves soon.
Top 10 Zip Codes With the Highest Projected Home Price Increases Through Summer 2024
Rio Grande City, TX: 78582
- Current average home value: $113,368
- Projected average value in July 2024: $127,312
- Projected 12 month growth: 12.3%
This southern Texas town sits right on the Mexican border. Home prices are relatively low, but the economy is growing thanks to jobs in sectors like healthcare, retail and education. High demand for limited housing inventory is expected to drive rapid home price appreciation over the coming year.
Knoxville, TN: 37920
- Current average home value: $283,744
- Projected average value in July 2024: $310,699
- Projected 12 month growth: 9.5%
The Kimberland Heights neighborhood is located just southwest of downtown Knoxville. It provides easy access to urban amenities, while maintaining a peaceful suburban atmosphere. Strong job growth and popularity with millennials should keep demand for housing surging.
North Miami, FL: 33161
- Current average home value: $461,145
- Projected average value in July 2024: $501,725
- Projected 12 month growth: 8.8%
As one of Miami's more affordable areas, North Miami attracts young professionals and families. This diverse waterfront community also provides convenient amenities and transportation options. Steady demand is expected to drive continued price growth.
Winston-Salem, NC: 27105
- Current average home value: $163,269
- Projected average value in July 2024: $177,322
- Projected 12 month growth: 8.7%
Located just north of downtown, this Winston-Salem zip code offers quick access to jobs as well as entertainment options. The area is popular with young professionals and families thanks to its affordable prices and good schools.
Muskegon, MI: 49442
- Current average home value: $158,324
- Projected average value in July 2024: $171,940
- Projected 12 month growth: 8.6%
This lakeside Michigan community is an affordable alternative to pricier Grand Rapids. Muskegon offers a walkable downtown, strong manufacturing job market and seasonal water recreation. Limited housing inventory continues to push prices higher.
Tied for 6th Highest Projected Growth
North Miami Beach, FL: 33162
- Current average home value: $443,856
- Projected average value in July 2024: $481,584
- Projected 12 month growth: 8.5%
Just north of Miami proper, this coastal community maintains some relative affordability. Condo buildings line the beaches and waterways, while single-family homes fill neighborhoods just inland. Strong demand is expected to persist through 2024.
Brownsville, FL: 33142
- Current average home value: $407,316
- Projected average value in July 2024: $442,075
- Projected 12 month growth: 8.5%
Located between Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Brownsville offers residents an affordable cost of living with convenient access to South Florida amenities and employers. Housing demand remains robust, especially from younger buyers.
Lenoir, NC: 28645
- Current average home value: $191,000
- Projected average value in July 2024: $206,894
- Projected 12 month growth: 8.4%
Tucked into the NC foothills, Lenoir has a charming small town vibe with a diversified manufacturing and healthcare economy. Lakefront living options also attract residents from bigger cities like Charlotte. Home prices remain relatively low for now.
Knoxville, TN: 37918
- Current average home value: $304,881
- Projected average value in July 2024: $330,186
- Projected 12 month growth: 8.3%
Like 37920, the 37918 zip code provides easy access to downtown Knoxville employment and nightlife. The area appeals to professionals and families seeking good schools and amenities without big city prices.
Tied for 10th Highest Projected Growth
Post Falls, ID: 83854
- Current average home value: $483,973
- Projected average value in July 2024: $523,659
- Projected 12 month growth: 8.2%
This scenic town near Coeur d'Alene attracts buyers seeking an affordable mountain lifestyle. Outdoor recreation options abound, while the Spokane metro area provides urban amenities under 30 minutes away. Demand is surging with inbound migration.
Tied for 10th Highest Projected Growth
Donna, TX: 78537
- Current average home value: $128,844
- Projected average value in July 2024: $139,409
- Projected 12 month growth: 8.2%
Donna offers Rio Grande Valley residents convenient access to jobs in McAllen and Edinburg. Home prices are far below national averages, appealing to first-time buyers. Investors also snap up inventory for rentals. Limited housing stock pushes prices higher.
Methodology
To find the zip codes with the highest projected home price growth, SmartAsset analyzed data from Zillow's ZHVI forecast for over 2,000 zip codes. We looked at the percent change in typical home values expected between July 2023 and July 2024. Zip codes were ranked by the highest projected home value percent change over that period. Average current and projected home values were also provided. Projected changes were applied to current averages to calculate the projected average value.
Tips for Homebuyers and Sellers
- Consider renting instead of buying using
- Shop mortgage rates and lenders
- Consult a trusted financial advisor for guidance on home buying and selling.
The housing market trends has experienced dramatic swings over the past few years. After record-breaking growth coming out of the pandemic, rising mortgage rates put a dent in demand through much of 2022. But new data shows buyers coming back, and markets like Miami and Knoxville leading the way.
Where could home prices head in your local market in 2023 and into 2024? Here are some key factors to watch.
Housing Market Trends - Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates surpassed 6% in 2022 before falling back below 5% to close out the year. Most experts forecast rates remaining in the 5-6% range through much of 2023.
While higher than the ultra-low rates of the past decade, this level remains relatively moderate by historical standards. Sustained rates below 6% could encourage buyers to return to the market, supporting prices.
But if economic uncertainty drives rates back up over 6%, it could dampen demand and price growth again. Monitoring mortgage rate trends will be key for forecasting housing activity.
Employment Market
A strong job market encourages household formation and housing demand. The national unemployment rate dropped back down to pre-pandemic levels at 3.4% as of January 2023.
If the job market remains resilient through upcoming Fed rate hikes, buyers will retain their purchasing power. But any substantial uptick in layoffs or unemployment could weaken demand.
Migration Trends
The pandemic shook up U.S. migration patterns as remote work freed up location. Many left expensive coastal cities for affordable Southern and Mountain states.
These trends could drive housing demand and price growth in popular destinations like Texas, Florida, Tennessee and North Carolina in the years ahead. Buyers should identify areas attracting new residents.
On the flip side, low inventory could constrain prices in cities losing population like San Francisco, Chicago and New York. Tracking migration data provides clues about where demand is strengthening or weakening.
Local Market Dynamics
While national interest influence housing market trends, local conditions ultimately determine how home values shift in a given area. Understanding the nuances of your metro or neighborhood is key.
Some examples of local dynamics that impact prices include:
- Job and wage growth
- New housing construction and inventory
- Demographic changes
- Amenities and infrastructure improvements
- Overall affordability compared to other markets
- Strength of the local economy and diversity of industries
Buyers should dig into not just national housing data, but also local market indicators before determining the right places and price points to purchase.
The Outlook for Home Prices
Forecasting home prices involves some guesswork. But examining both macro and micro market factors provides the best assessment of where your local market may be heading.
Nationwide, most experts call for relatively modest single-digit home price appreciation in 2023 and 2024 after the rapid gains of 2020 and 2021. But particular metro areas and neighborhoods could outperform or underperform the national averages based on local conditions.
Staying nimble and taking advantage of dips or spikes at the right moment can help both buyers and sellers thrive across housing cycles. Relying on thorough market research and guidance from real estate and financial professionals can provide the key insights needed to make smart moves.
While uncertainty always exists, savvy buyers and sellers have many tools at their disposal to assess where home values are headed in their target locations. Taking full advantage of the latest data, projections and expertise can build confidence and maximize success when navigating the housing market trends in the years ahead.